The world's biggest banks are heading for their worst year of credit trading in a decade as soaring interest rates and global economic uncertainty bite into their profits.
The 200 biggest investment banks are set to collectively make US$8.3 billion this financial year, a 36 per cent yearly drop and the lowest since at least 2012, according to forecasts from Coalition Greenwich. Company bond yields are at the highest levels since the financial crisis in 2009.
Last year's top three arrangers of global corporate bond deals, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Securities and Citigroup Inc., have maintained their positions so far this year but seen volume roughly halve. JPMorgan has arranged US$78 billion of offerings year-to-date compared with US$144 billion at the same point in 2021, while Bank of America is credited with US$67 billion versus US$126 billion last year. Citi's US$64 billion share is down from US$118 billion.
Borrowers have had to contend with ever-narrower windows in which to get deals done, opting to avoid days with important data releases, central bank meetings or national holidays in other countries to maximize the available investors. Italian football club AS Roma SpA is repaying its bond investors early and in full as it seeks to lock in new debt
The stress weighing on credit markets is proving a boon for Ture Invest AB, a Swedish private lender that is increasingly filling the void left by derisking banks and bond markets Dollar bonds from some Indonesian property developers are also heading for their biggest declines in roughly seven weeks as concerns about refinancing spreads across the sector
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