TopPicks from Bruce Campbell, president and portfolio manager, StoneCastle Investment Management
FOCUS: Canadian stocksMarkets continue to be volatile with choppy trading on a daily basis. Multiple cross currents including inflation, central bank policy, earnings and geopolitical events are constantly on investors’ minds.
A year ago, inflation was “transitory” but today investors are concerned and looking at every data point trying to get an edge on the future of inflation. The October CPI data, which will be released on Nov. 10, will be a key data point influencing investors. Some individual aspects of inflation are showing early signs of moderating but it will take more time before we know for sure how fast and when it will slow.
It doesn’t matter what sentiment indicator you look at, readings are at historical lows often seen close to market bottoms. The challenge with sentiment indicators is they can’t be used for exact market timing as they are simply a condition and not a signal for a reversal of a trend. Right now, market participants are as pessimistic as we can remember and from a contrarian standpoint that is a positive.
We continue to watch the U.S. dollar as well as interest rates for signs of a trend change that could be the start of the next bull market. We are seeing interesting changes under the surface of the market in many areas. We just hosted our monthly indicator webinar. We reviewed some of the favourable changes in mid-and small-caps, utilities, consumer discretionary, technology and energy sectors that may be indicating a change in trend in the near future.
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