Data published since the December rate decision suggest that the Canadian economy has more momentum than the central bank would like to see
is heading into its Jan. 25 interest-rate decision with a different watchword: “data dependence.”
“But we recognize that we have raised interest rates rapidly and that their effects are working their way through the economy. In other words, we are moving from how much to raise interest rates to whether to raise interest rates.” “One is that they’re not patient enough to see the impact of the hikes they’ve done, and they end up over-hiking and causing a deeper recession than they intended. But there’s also a risk of waiting too long to hike again and finding that inflation reaccelerates. So it’s a balancing act and they’re at the point of the cycle where a finely tuned judgment is required.”had fallen to 6.8 per cent in November.
“Those three-month indicators that they’ve highlighted have come down very substantially,” he said. “We were at 7 or 8 per cent in May or June, and now we’re around 3 to 4 per cent.” The remarkable strength of the job market is good news for many workers. But it’s a problem for the Bank of Canada.
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