Federal Reserve officials likely to once again raise their outlook for how high they’ll have to lift interest rates following the latest bout of bad inflation…
That hardened bets officials will roll out another significant rate hike next month, and could signal they’ll need to bring rates higher than they previously expected before they can take a pause. It would be the latest upward revision to estimates for the peak of this tightening cycle as policymakers fight to control price pressures.Article content
Kansas City Fed President Esther George, San Francisco’s Mary Daly and Fed Governor Lisa Cook have the chance to reflect on how the inflation report affects their outlooks when they speak at separate events Friday.Article content Fed officials point to the economic projections released after their Sept. 20-21 meeting as the best guide for where they see interest rates headed. But they are also careful to say that the forecasts are not a commitment and their views will evolve as they learn more about how the economy is behaving.Article content“What’s really at play in the September CPI is the December FOMC meeting, and the news is not good.
If history is any guide, officials could forecast a higher terminal rate when they meet in December. A look at officials’ previous projections shows they have raised their expectations for how high they think rates will need to go with each update this year. Investors expect Fed officials to raise rates by 75 basis points for the fourth straight time when they meet in early November with the same-sized move on the table for December, continuing the most aggressive tightening cycle since the 1980s.
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