The Hunt for a Strong, Stable, National Conservative Majority: The Conservative Party’s Voter Universe, by DavidColetto
So much attention is paid to the horserace, even when we are likely at least a year or more from the next federal election. I think it's far more valuable to understand how a party might grow or shrink by focusing on its accessible pool of voters.
I went into Abacus Data's poll archive and looked at our most recent national survey conducted in mid-March to gather the evidence and data for this post. Given the Conservative Party's inefficient vote, it will likely need to win the national popular vote by at least five points to win a majority, meaning getting close to 40% of the popular vote. A quick simulation using 338Canada's tool with the Conservatives at 37%, the Liberals at 32%, the NDP at 18%, and the BQ at 7% leaves the Conservatives seven seats short of a majority. At 38% with the Liberals at 31%, the Conservatives cross the magic 170 seat number.
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