When some economists are trying to forecast a recession, the relationship between funding rates and lending rates (the yield curve) is a major factor. When this yield curve inverts, it has always forecast a recession within 12 to 18 months in the…
The top part of the chart shows the monthly peak to trough drawdown of the S&P 500 and the peak to trough drawdown in earnings per share on the right side scale. Higher for longer: He reiterated that the terminal rate is not as important as how long they keep it there to make sure core inflation is contained.
Headline goods inflation has likely peaked while wage pressures are continuing. That’s the part of core inflation they are focusing on. The scenario where EPS do not decline in 2023 and actually grow like the bottom-up consensus believes is inconsistent with historical outcomes. The table/chart below shows the forward EPS for the S&P 500 broken down by quarter and the change over the past year. It has come down, but not likely anywhere close unless the soft-landing scenario plays out.
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Last time Canada's yield curve inversion was this steep was just before the early 1990s recessionA key part of Canada’s yield curve is now at the steepest inversion since the early 1990s, a possible warning sign for the economy. Read on
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Last time Canada's yield curve inversion was this steep was just before the early 1990s recessionA key part of Canada’s yield curve is now at the steepest inversion since the early 1990s, a possible warning sign for the economy. Read on
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Last time Canada's yield curve inversion was this steep was just before the early 1990s recessionA key part of Canada’s yield curve is now at the steepest inversion since the early 1990s, a possible warning sign for the economy. Read on
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