ICYMI - Posthaste: Why Canada's economy may be in more trouble than the IMF thinks
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“The IMF estimates that global growth in 2023 will be similar to 2019 – soft, but not a disaster – and that a global recession will likely be avoided. By contrast, our forecasts are much weaker and we think the global economy is on the cusp of recession,” wrote Oxford Economics director of global macro research Ben May in a note Thursday.
While Canada is unlikely to suffer the financial turmoil now engulfing the U.K., the important lesson of that scenario is “when interest rates are rising rapidly to levels not seen in a decade, things can break,” says Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics. “The big risks are still that adverse feedback loops develop either between housing and the real economy – as a recession pushes up the unemployment rate, triggering a rise in mortgage defaults – or between housing and the financial system – with lower house prices triggering losses at mortgage lenders, leading to tighter credit conditions,” he said.
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