The green energy transition has morphed into a crisis about energy security revealing heavy global demand for hydrocarbons. Read on.
What a difference a year makes. Last year’s COP26 message of green energy as a panacea for climate risk has been replaced by a global shift prioritizing energy security and putting hydrocarbons back to front and centre. Absentee leaders from COP27 include: India, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and even Canada. Meanwhile European and U.S. politicians seem incapable of recognizing the new normal.
The International Energy Agency projects a 50 per cent increase in global energy demand by 2050, while OPEC recently increased its global oil forecast for 2030 from 100 to 108 million barrels a day, with its market share expanding because of politically constrained Canadian and U.S. production. Coal demand across the EU is up 25 per cent since late last year. Germany is accessing dormant domestic resources but in 2023 will become the third-largest importer of Indonesian coal after China and India. Coal is currently keeping the lights on as Europe seeks access to LNG and expands its nuclear infrastructure. European environmentalists and green politicians are quite correct in saying these developments represent 30- to 40-year commitments to hydrocarbons as a core energy source.
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