Heather Scoffield: The difficulty in reading Canada’s economic tea leaves in a murky world of ‘what ifs’
The dissonance is almost commonplace nowadays when the job numbers come out the first Friday of every month.
So is it safe to say we’re coasting in for a soft-landing, and perhaps even “building back better” at the same time?Bank of Canada’s forecast this week Consumers and investors alike are daunted by the prospects before us, resisting big changes and hesitating with their money as they seek to mitigate risk and look, often in vain, for certainty from regulators and policymakers.
The central bank has revised its outlook repeatedly and even as it is forecasting a soft landing, that gentle projection is not what we see coming from the U.S. Federal Reserve or the International Monetary Fund. Even the federal budget, with its proclivity to show the best side of everything, projected two straight quarters of mild contraction and warned of declining corporate profits.
For sure, there are some expectations that the labour market is just slow to react. Hiring is not as hot as it was, and the cumulative impact of higher interest rates is still barrelling its way through the economy.
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