Record high employment, yet slowing inflation and flat growth – what gives?
But not for the reasons they expected. On the contrary, the long queues aren’t outside unemployment offices but at job fairs, where employers are scrambling to find workers. So if unemployment isn’t cooling demand, something else must be. It could be that it’s time to go back to the drawing board. That’s, however, usually the last thing economists like to do, so instead they tend to retrofit their models to the data – or they recalibrate them, to use trade jargon.
In this case, the get-out-of-jail card lies in the real wage data. While there are plenty of jobs, wages are rising more slowly than inflation. That means real earnings are falling, showing the job market to be less robust than the headline figures suggest. But even this argument looks less convincing by the day – because real wages are improving even as inflation declines..
So if employment and wages aren’t cooling demand, what is? There’s now evidence that the link between employment and inflation may not be as strong as we once supposed, and moreover that the Biden stimulus actually had
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