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Markets, bracing for a “no landing” scenario where global economic growth is resilient and inflation stays higher for longer, are dialing back appetite for both risk assets and government debt.
But recent data reflecting still tight jobs markets has traders entertaining a new scenario where economic growth holds up and inflation remains sticky. U.S. jobs growth accelerated sharply in January, U.S. and German inflation remained high, while U.S. and European business activity rebounded in February.
China’s reopening, an easing in Europe’s gas crisis and strong U.S. consumer spending “are probably more bearish than positive for markets,” said Richard Dias, founder of macro-economic research house Acorn Macro Consulting.For Paul Flood, head of mixed assets at Newton Investment Management, “if wage growth stays high and demand stays high, then the Fed will push up interest rates further and that’s not a good environment for equity or bond markets.
In December, most economists expected the U.S. economy to contract slightly this year but the consensus now is for 0.7% growth. Fed officials have signaled that they will likely keep raising rates for longer than previously forecast. Many investors still believe inflation will subside, and see recent strong data as probably supported by one-time factors such as an unseasonably mild winter and the remainder of consumer savings accumulated during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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