Fears grow that prolonged tightening could hurt the economy more than necessary
Central banks are starting to slow aggressive rate rises but are far from done even as recession looms, leaving investors alert to risks that prolonged tightening could hurt the economy more than necessary.
With inflation potentially peaking and recession looming, the risk of overtightening accelerating a downturn is on investors’ watchlists for next year. Oil prices, down 45% since February, have erased 2022 gains . European natural gas prices are still elevated, but down some 60% from a September peak.
U.S. mortgage rates have doubled this year, applications are down some 40%. Home sales are falling much faster than in previous tightening cycles, according to alternative asset manager Apollo. OECD research has also shown that all advanced economies raising rates at the same time hits growth harder with less of an impact on reducing inflation.
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