Facing intense domestic pressure to flex Russian muscle, Putin will turn to asymmetric warfare to inflict damage and weaken NATO unity
Earlier this month, after a U.K. derivatives trading operator was hacked, cybersecurity agencies in France and Italy reported a ransomware attack on thousands of computer systems in those countries, plus the United States and Canada. Increasingly ominous warnings from Russian President Vladimir Putin that western support for Ukraine will draw a variety of Russian responses has intelligence agencies on high alert. Americans and Europeans speak of the war as a fight between Russia and Ukraine.
For all these reasons, Russia’s frustrated president knows he has little left to lose from further escalation against the West, as long as he can avoid a direct military confrontation that would force him to choose between quick and complete defeat or the use of nuclear weapons, which would threaten his own survival. He also knows that western leaders are as reluctant as he is to take actions that might have nuclear consequences.
Moscow’s nuclear threats will intensify, and Putin’s threats will become more explicit. He may well make a show of moving tactical nuclear weapons closer to Ukrainian territory and increasing the alert status of Russia’s nuclear arsenal.Article content Russia will work to undermine western elections by supporting and funding disinformation, candidates who question their governments’ support for Ukraine and even political extremism. Over the coming year, Russia may well launch disinformation campaigns not just against Democrats but against Donald Trump’s Republican presidential rivals, as well. Moscow will probably provoke trouble in the Balkans, as a ploy to distract NATO from Ukraine.
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