When polls closed in Arizona's U.S. Senate race in November 2018, initial results from in-person voting showed Republican Martha McSally in the lead. Her advantage evaporated in the days that followed with the tallying of postal ballots.
- When polls closed in Arizona’s U.S. Senate race in November 2018, initial results from in-person voting showed Republican Martha McSally in the lead. Her advantage evaporated in the days that followed with the tallying of postal ballots.
Nearly half of Democrats say they plan to vote by mail, while only one quarter of Republicans plan to do so, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling in August. Demand is driven in no small part by fear of infection from the coronavirus in public. “The longer it takes to count absentee ballots, the more the narrative will take hold among Trump supporters and will be their ‘proof’ to question unfavorable election results,” said Dennis Darnoi, a Republican strategist based in Michigan, a state Trump won by less than a percentage point in 2016.
But three Rust Belt states considered among the most competitive - Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - prohibit officials from processing, let alone counting, ballots before Election Day. “The most likely scenario is that we’ll know who the president is on Election Night,” said Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida. “I’m not as worried by these doomsday scenarios.”
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