John Clinkard's latest column examines why high office vacancy rates are dimming the office construction outlook.
Over the past year, according to Cushman Wakefield, the office vacancy rate in Canada has risen by 2.1 percentage points despite a +4.5% y/y increase in desk-bound employment. This increase in hiring, accompanied by the decline in absorption, highlights the significant proportion of the workforce that is still working from home more than two years after the initial onset of COVID-19.
The fact that the incidence of working from home is higher in Canada than in the U.S. suggests that firms in Canada are more willing to accede to their employees’ wishes than are firms in the U.S., where the unemployment rate is significantly below that of Canada’s .Across the country, there is lingering resistance by employees, especially older employees, to move back to the office full-time.
Despite experiencing a strong +17.8% increase in office-based hiring and a steady improvement in leasing activity over the past several quarters, the effects of persisting negative absorption have caused the office vacancy rate in Calgary to hold above 27% since Q1 2022. As with St. John’s, the effects of higher resource prices and stronger population growth will likely cause Calgary’s leasing activity to gain momentum heading into next year.
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