U.S. banking giant sees 75 basis points more hiking by the BOC
Inflation will fall swiftly next year and Canada will narrowly avoid a recession, Goldman Sachs says in a new - and overall quite upbeat - outlook for the country in 2023.
Goldman sees Canadian housing prices ultimately falling 18 per cent from their peak in February. They’ve already fallen 10 per cent, based on MLS Home Price Index data up until October. That means if the bank’s views turn out to be correct, prices will be subject to a further drop of eight percentage points before flatlining and possibly rising once again.* “Inflation appears to be making genuine progress, and the housing market – the largest vulnerability – is making a controlled descent.
* “We are also confident that recent improvements in inflation will be sustained and forecast 2.8% year-over-year headline inflation in December 2023. We expect falling house prices to weigh on shelter inflation and for sequential core goods inflation to remain soft. In fact, we expect sequential ex. food, energy, and mortgage interest cost inflation to be below 2% by next summer.
* “We do not expect any BoC cuts next year. Even in a resilient growth environment, the market may continue to price cuts as underlying sequential inflation pressures weaken. We think the BoC will look through this as growth should be picking up and some negative inflation impulses should be fading at this point, but the risk of a cut is higher than in other G10 economies.”
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