A look at five trades investors are crowding into
King Dollar’s reign coming to an end, bonds bouncing and emerging markets rising again are just some of the trades international money managers are betting on in 2023.
The yen could also be a driving force, after the Bank of Japan sprung a late surprise by abruptly altering the “yield curve control” programme it has used to keep its interest rates close to zero. MSCI’s China index gained nearly 40% from November to mid December but more is possible. BNP Paribas reckons travel, domestic consumption and tech shares can rise further and has upgraded China to “overweight” in its 2023 model portfolio, which includes stocks such as Tencent andWhisper it, but the emerging markets bulls are back after 2022 delivered some of the biggest losses on record.
Performance following past routs underscores this wave of optimism. MSCI’s EM equity index soared 64% in 1999, following the Asian financial crisis, and 75% in 2009. EM hard currency debt saw a whopping 30% rebound too after its 12% global financial crisis drop.Inflation - the bond market’s nemesis because it forces up rates and erodes returns - looks likely to moderate this year as recessions start to bite.
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