economy IMF Economic outlook turns 'gloomier' than the IMF's October estimate
With the economy starting to slow, the outlook is now 'gloomier' than what the International Monetary Fund projected in its October report.
The IMF's concern comes from what looks like a steady worsening of the purchasing manager indices in recent months, Gudmundsson explained. The trend is especially visible when looking at the G20 economies. "October PMI releases point to weakness in the fourth quarter, particularly in Europe. In China, intermittent pandemic lockdowns and the struggling real estate sector are contributing to a slowdown that can be seen not only in PMI data but also in investment, industrial production, and retail sales. This will inevitably have a significant impact on other economies due to China's large role in trade," Gudmundsson wrote.
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Economists expect inflation gained steam in October amid gas price jumpHowever, RBC Economics says broader 'core' inflation measures 'have shown some very early signs that the breadth of inflation pressures may be easing' From m_zadikian
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China's old ultra-high growth rate is never coming backLONDON, U.K.—Predictions are tough, especially about the future (as Yogi Berra once said). Moreover, the “iron laws” of economics don’t actually exist: there are too many random variables for any predictions about economic futures to be reliable. But the 30-year rule comes pretty close. It says that industrializing economies generally hit a golden period when the population is growing fast, lots of cheap labour is pouring into the cities from the countryside, and the economy grows very fast too. However, this period lasts, on average, for about three decades, then growth falls back to the familiar old two to three per cent annually. It happened like that in the United Kingdom in 1850-1880, and the United States had its turn in about 1885-1915. Russia (or rather the new Soviet Union) had its boom time in the 1920s and 1930s, but it lost the third decade because Germany invaded in 1941. This pattern is quite independent of the prevailing economic ideology, as you can clearly see “miracles” in East Asia following the Second World War. Japan in 1950-1980 is the extreme example: growth peaked at 12.5 per cent a year and averaged about five per cent annually until 1980. At one point, Japan was officially reckoned to be the world’s second-biggest economy, and the land in the garden of the Imperial Palace in central Tokyo was allegedly worth more than the entire state of California. Then Japan’s 30 years were up, and since 1990 the Japanese economy has barely grown at all. South Korea and Taiwan started down the same road a bit later, got their three decades of high-speed growth, and are now back to normal developed-country rates. So why do so many people think China is exempt from this rule? China’s three decades of super-charged growth began in the early 1980s, and its last year of double-digit growth was 2010. This year, the International Monetary Fund forecasts the growth rate will be 3.2 per cent—but some observers suspect that the Chinese economy isn’t growing anymore
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Five things to watch for in the Canadian business world in the coming weekThe Canadian Real Estate Association is expected to release home sales figures for October on Tuesday.
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Ontario government set to release fall economic outlookOntario is set to release its fall economic outlook today.
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Low-income Canadians will be disproportionately affected by economic slowdown, Tiff Macklem saysThe Bank of Canada governor said there is ‘no easy way’ to restore price stability but that the ultimate outcome of raising interest rates will be better for all Canadians
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Ontario government set to release fall economic outlook | Globalnews.caFinance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy says the province will take a responsible approach to push its plan to build homes and highways.
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