For investors, pinning hopes on a resurgence in Chinese demand to offset economic weakness elsewhere is misplaced. David Rosenberg explains.
While the end of China’s lockdowns will further ease supply chains and add to worldwide disinflationary pressures, related growth benefits are unlikely to be enough to prevent a global downturn in 2023. That’s a warning to investors not to get complacent amid talk in the media of a soft landing for major economies, and to take a defensive posture by steering clear of cyclical stocks while adding high-quality bonds to the portfolio.
It’s unclear what fatality rate Beijing would be willing to tolerate, but one should never underestimate the government’s resolve to bring back lockdowns if deemed necessary. It’s true that thanks to relatively low inflation, the People’s Bank of China has room to stimulate demand. But despite a string of accommodative policy measures this year, the uptake of credit has been rather modest. Household loans have risen by 3.65 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2022, just half of the tally registered for the same period in 2020 and 2021.
The good news is that the yuan’s competitiveness has significantly improved this year, with the real effective exchange rate dropping to its lowest level in almost three years thanks to nominal depreciation and lower inflation rates than China’s trade partners. The bad news is that exports are vulnerable to a global economic downturn, which is becoming more likely after unprecedented policy tightening by world central banks.
المملكة العربية السعودية أحدث الأخبار, المملكة العربية السعودية عناوين
Similar News:يمكنك أيضًا قراءة قصص إخبارية مشابهة لهذه التي قمنا بجمعها من مصادر إخبارية أخرى.
David Rosenberg: The great reopening of China may not be as great as you thinkFor investors, pinning hopes on a resurgence in Chinese demand to offset economic weakness elsewhere is misplaced. David Rosenberg explains.
اقرأ أكثر »
David Rosenberg: The great reopening of China may not be as great as you thinkFor investors, pinning hopes on a resurgence in Chinese demand to offset economic weakness elsewhere is misplaced. David Rosenberg explains.
اقرأ أكثر »
DAVID JOHNSON: 2023 calendar includes elections, a coronation and a somber anniversary | SaltWireSo, as we get ready to say goodbye to 2022, it’s time to look ahead to some of the known events that will be taking place on the political scene in 2023.
اقرأ أكثر »
Victoria Beckham Shows Off Her Cheeky Christmas Present From Husband David Beckham As Pair Pose For Adorable SnapVictoria Beckham got everything she wanted over the holidays. The Spice Girls singer took to Instagram on Christmas Day to share an adorable snap of herself posing with her husband David Beckham. It seems like David had gifted his wife a white hoodie with the slogan 'All I want for Christmas is David Beckham' on…
اقرأ أكثر »
Japan to require COVID-19 tests for all visitors from ChinaJapanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced Tuesday that Japan will tighten border controls for COVID-19 by requiring tests for all visitors from China starting Friday as a temporary emergency measure against the surging infections there.
اقرأ أكثر »
China 'turns corner' by ending quarantine, foreign firms sayForeign companies welcomed China's decision to end quarantines for travellers from abroad as an important step to revive slumping business activity while Japan on Tuesday joined India in announcing restrictions on visitors from the country as infections surge.
اقرأ أكثر »