The loonie will edge 0.6 per cent higher to $1.35 per U.S. dollar, or 74.07 U.S. cents, in three months, currency analysts say. Read more.
“We expect to see some mild CAD weakness in the first half of 2023 … as last year’s rate hikes work their way through the economy and lead to a mild recession,” said George Davis, chief technical strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
The Bank of Canada, along with the United States Federal Reserve and most other major central banks, has raised interest rates at a rapid pace to tackle soaring inflation.Article content At 4.25 per cent, the Bank of Canada’s benchmark rate is at its highest since 2008. Money markets see a 60 per cent chance the central bank would hike by a quarter-percentage-point when it next meets to set policy on Jan. 25 and anticipate the policy rate will peak at about 4.60 per cent in April.
Canada’s economy is likely to be particularly sensitive to tighter monetary policy after households borrowed heavily during the pandemic to participate in a red-hot housing market. “In the second half of the year we look for stabilization and a mild recovery in growth — not only in Canada but globally,” Davis said. “A more positive economic cycle would bode well for commodities and CAD as well.”This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.
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