On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady, rather than increasing it, for the first time in 12 months.
growth remains well above the bank’s target. But there are increasing, if conflicted, signs that higher borrowing costs are having their intended effect: slowing the economy and weighing on price growth.
A pause this week would make the Bank of Canada the first major central bank to stop increasing interest rates. That would put it on a different trajectory than the U.S Federal Reserve, whose officials expect to raise rates several more times. There have been moments since the January rate decision at which the Bank of Canada’s pledge to pause rate hikes looked premature. Two weeks after the announcement, Statistics Canada published a blockbuster jobs report showing that the labour market added 150,000 positions in January, 10 times Bay Street’s consensus estimate, while the unemployment rate held steady at 5 per cent.
The January inflation numbers were also more mild than expected. The consumer price index rose 5.9 per cent year-over-year, down from 6.3 per cent in December and below the Bay Street estimate of 6.1 per cent. Inflation measures that capture more recent price trends show underlying inflation running at between 3 per cent and 3.5 per cent.
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