Various measures of perceived tail risk have climbed to multi-month highs in recent days as concerns over contagion from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and instability at Credit Suisse gripped markets
The Nations TailDex, an options-based index that measures the cost of hedging against an outsized move in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, earlier this week rose to its highest level since May as banking worries percolated.
“In general, this notion that there are real “tails” to the market is actually making a lot of clients revisit tail hedges,” said Amy Wu Silverman, head of derivatives strategy at RBC Capital Markets, referring to options positions that would guard against big market losses. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, was among those pinning the recent turbulence on the Fed’s monetary tightening campaign, which saw policy-makers raise rates by 450 basis points over the past year.
While markets have reduced their expectations for how high policy-makers will raise rates following the uncertainty in the banking sector, “we think that’s misguided and expect major central banks to keep hiking rates in their meetings in coming days to try to rein in persistent inflation,” they said.
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